Saturday, April 2, 2016

Does Hedging on the same currency pair Really Exist A Look at Position Holding in Forex Trading ~ forex trading history

One of the things I consider the funniest about forex traders is that they seem to have a strong opposition against the removal of "hedging" from their trading capacity. However few of them do realize that the traditional hedging we have seen where you buy and sell a given currency pair at the same time is merely and illusion and that in reality it doesnt exist or -for that matter- make any real sense. On todays post I want to talk about the concept of hedging, why it simply doesnt exist in reality and why any strategy that uses this concept can be implemented without its use. After reading this post you will understand better that hedging a currency pair by having open long and short positions at the same time is not possible in the real market and you ll see how you can actually understand what you are doing when you have this on your account and how it can be implemented within your strategy to have the exact same results without ever having more than one position opened per currency pair.

What is hedging after all ? In general it refers to the taking of opposite positions with a certain degree of correlation that offers some protection against side movements in the market. So for example going short EUR/USD and short USD/CHF is bound to guarantee some protection against variations in either currency pair since they are heavily and negatively correlated. However since the correlation is not 1 the actual effectiveness of this hedge depends on market conditions and - when correlation is temporarily lost - such hedges become extremely dangerous.

However, when people in the MT4 community refer to "hedging" they generally talk about having a long and short position opened at the same time on a currency pair. For example they open up a long on the EUR/USD at X price and then a short afterwards to cover up their loses or to "fix" some of the profit level they have achieved. Many traders who are not familiar with how the market works consider hedging absolutely vital for their success and the removal of this feature seems to be extremely unacceptable.

When we look close having a short and a long trade opened on the same pair is merely an illusion. What you are doing is buying and selling the same contract so if you were actually carrying out currency exchanges (of physical currency) you would have done the same exchange twice and ended up with what you started with (your ending net positioning is 0). It doesnt actually make sense if you think about it and the way it has been implemented in MT4 is practical in some ways but very misleading in others.

As a matter of fact, any hedging strategy can be implemented EXACTLY in the same way without ever having two positions opened in the market. For example if you bought USD/JPY at 85.54 then you want to enter a short position at 84.54 then exit the short and the long at 86.54 the same effect would be realized if you closed the long at 85.54 because closing the long is indeed what you would be doing in reality if you entered a short. The later point where you exit both the long and short is irrelevant since your net positioning from the open of the short is 0.

Case 1 ( Buy 85.54, Sell 84.54, Close both 86.54)

Long Result = 86.54-85.54 = 100 pip profit
Short Result = 84.54-86.54 = 200 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

Case 2 (Buy 85.54, Close 84.54)

Long Result = 85.54-84.54 = 100 pip loss

Net Result = 100 pip loss

So in summary it is now evident that the current "short and long hedging ability" in metatrader 4 is simply an illusion and that any strategy can be implemented which currently relies on this feature simply by taking into account the net positioning of the account. When shorts are entered they close longs and when longs are entered they close shorts. In the end this leads to the exact same effect as we would have had if we had simply opened all the short and long positions simultaneously since what matters is merely our net positioning in the market. This is the approach that really makes sense and falls in line with what would happen in a physicial currency exchange.

To sum it up, if you currently have a portfolio trading on the same instrument or if you are trading a system that opens longs and shorts on the same currency pair, dont worry about hedging as you can always implement your strategy using a net positioning approach, something we will all have to do once we move entirely towarsd metatrader 5.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code likely long term profitable systems using reliable trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

forex trading history

Time To Evolve From FxReviews to MechanicalForex a Milestone Achievement o ~ forex trading earnings

Today its a very important day, not because of the release of another automated trading strategy or some other achievement related to Asirikuy or the development of expert advisors but because today I will be taking a huge step for this blog and - hopefully- my online presence in general. Through the past 3 years fxreviews.blogspot.com has been the home of my forex blogging efforts and after more than 500 articles and a lot of modifications it has now become evident for me that this blog and its potential have exceeded the limitations of what the blogger platform has to offer. Today I am taking a step forward and sharing with you this blogs new url : http://www.mechanicalforex.com. Within the following paragraphs I will also share with you the reasons why I decided to take this important decision and why I consider this a very important move for the development of this website.

Although blogger has been a very friendly, rewarding and robust blogging solution its limitations became evident as my blogging frequency increased and the number of my posts became larger. Blogger offers some great advantages, such as being free, being able to do everything easily and having the safety and reliability of Google servers to host all the data, however it fails in two main aspects that make it unsustainable in the long term for me. The first problem is the inability to customize things - which means that the platform is rather inflexible - and the second is the lack of professionalism that comes from a sub-domain of a free blogging platform.

One of the biggest problems I have faced with blogger is the inability to customize the tags and categories of my posts in a way that makes my blog easy to use. The website now has a lot of content and the limitations of the blogger interface make it very hard to reach. So what is so much content useful for if it cannot be accessed easily ? The answer is that it is simply not useful. Since a website needs to be easy to browse and things should be very easy to find, I considered this a major problem for my future developments.

Another important reason why a change was now necessary is the fact that the website is no longer mainly about the review of automated trading forex products, something which makes its name rather inaccurate. Although this was the main topic of the website for a while it is now evident - especially since I started posting daily - that we are now moving towards a much wider area where the review of commercial systems is only secondary to a much bigger goal, which is the continuous achievement of long term profitability. The website is now much more about sharing new ideas and giving advice about how to succeed with mechanical trading than about going through the endless tides of products that reach us every month from the hands of commercial EA sellers.

To solve all these problems and move forward, making my blog much more customizable, easy to navigate, accessible and professional, I decided to create a new domain - that better reflected what the website is about now - and create a whole new website powered by Wordpress. This new website is called Mechanical Forex, a website dedicated to the use, development, review and evaluation of mechanical trading strategies. A website in which the name is much more reflective of what is going on inside of it.

Thanks to some very friendly Wordpress plugins moving all my posts from blogger was a breeze (surprisingly with no broken links :o)) . However there are still some things that need fixing (for example all the links that pointed to articles within articles still point to blogger) but I am confident in that all of these problems will be solved within a few weeks (after I become more knowledgeable in wordpress). However the new Wordpress implementation carees a ton of flexibility that will also allow me to greatly improve the usability of the site, generating tags, category listings and linking systems that will be much better (a world better!) than what we currently have here in blogger.

Starting tomorrow this website will redirect to the new one and new posts will only be placed on the new site. If you are a frequent reader and you follow this blog through the RSS feed please make sure you subscribe to the new blog through any of the buttons shown on the top right. There are also some links on the top right so that you can share the websites articles on digg, stumbleupon, facebook and other social sites. If you like this website make sure you share it with other people you know who might find it useful :o)

Hopefully this new website will be a major improvement, it is definitely a milestone achievement and for me it feels like a move from a "hobby" to a much more "professional" blogger. Thank you very much again for all the support, interest and trust you have given me through all these years :o) Please leave any opinions, comments or questions you might have about the new site ! (you can leave them here or in the new website)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can build your own mechanical systems based on sound trading strategies please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Friday, April 1, 2016

Oh My Bad Luck The Perception of Luck and its Psychological Effect in Forex Trading ~ forex trading facts

It is funny when you see how new traders talk about their first experiences in trading and what they believe happens when they start using a given system. Time after time I have found out people in forums saying that whenever they start to run a system it goes south and that this is merely a consequence of their terrible, terrible bad luck. As a matter of fact there are many reasonable explanations to these phenomena and a clear argument that shows us why most people are bound to start trading systems within draw down periods. Today I want to talk about this "luck" aspect of trading, why people get this perception about their own trading experience and the psychological effect it tends to have in the end.

So why do most systems go into draw down right after you start using them ? The answer to this question is surprisingly simple and tells us a lot about both trading systems and trader psychology. To understand why this is the case we first need to take a look into the way in which inexperienced traders select their automatic or manual trading systems. Usually the only thing new people care about is the slope of the equity curve and the fact that it is making money consistently, constantly and in great or moderate amounts during a period superior to 1 or 2 months. When a new trader sees this type of system he or she immediately wants to use it and set it up. After all, the system has been showing excellent results and why should this be different in the future ?
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The problem to those experienced in trading should now become more evident. New traders fail to understand that systems trade in profit and draw down cycles and that the only way in which a system can remain profitable in the long term is if those profitable periods are greater in magnitude than the draw down periods. However, they fail to grasp the fact that a system can still have very profitable periods and then strong draw down periods that wipe accounts. A general lack of focus on the reliability of simulations and the need to have long term reliable back testing results ends up with inexperienced traders only paying attention to very short term live tests that are statistically meaningless and only portray very short term trading results.

Additionaly- despite the actual long term profitability of a system- the existance of long consistently profitable periods makes the entering into draw down periods more likely since the market is waiting to cash on the systems exposure. So the more attractive the equity curve seems to new traders, the more likely it is to show a venture into draw down territory. In the end inexperienced traders will systematically select systems that have a high like hood to enter draw down periods and this will lead - in the bast majority of cases - to the above mentioned result. Every time you get a system, it seems to start losing money. Oh my bad luck.

However the solution is not to do the opposite and get into systems that are losing money (new traders tend to simplify things this way), the solution is to know the extent of the draw downs a trading system will get into, to have reliable long term trading simulations that can show us precisely what we should expect from the system. As always it is lack of understanding what makes new traders so bad at picking systems and even worse at being able to live through extensive and deep draw down periods (something that is bound to happen with any system). If you look for a system that consistenly makes profits and "seldomly loses" you are getting yourself into this game of picking losing systems and even worse, you are most likely to use systems with very unsound trading tactics and risk to reward ratios.

In the end, the "luck effect" - as I like to call it - has an important effect in trader psychology , ending up with traders losing all their "faith" in automated trading. People who time after time use systems with very nice equity curves only to find strong draw down periods sometime after will most of the time say "automated trading doesnt work" and they will completely quit the quest to achieve profitable trading using this type of systems. However it is important here to understand that what generates this "luck effect" is merely the general lack of in-depth analysis and the desperate search for a holy grail of automated trading. When new traders acquire some experience and they begin to see that the analysis and understanding of a trading system is vital for success, the luck effect immediately starts to vanish since draw down periods become a part of the business and not an undesirable evil.

Of course if you would like to gain a true education in automated trading and learn to design and use systems you can understand and have confidence in please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

forex trading facts

Forex Trading Strategy 32 ~ forex trading regulations

Market Analysis of the 7th of September 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1


Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Most of the pairs have a clear trend.

EUR/USD: End of a cycle of 5 waves. Price is near the alligator so prudence.
GBP/USD: Nice wave 3, we can look for shorts.
USD/JPY: Second push of the wave 3 down, we can look for shorts.
USD/CHF: Chart is still sideways. Price inside the alligator, be patient.
AUD/USD: New lovely push of the wave 3 down, we can look for shorts.
EUR/JPY: Price has cleared many levels down, nice wave down, we can look for shorts.
USD/CAD: Still wave 3 up but we have 2 divergences, we can still buy this pair with prudence.
NZD/USD: New push of the wave 3 down, we can look for shorts.
XAU/USD: Probably in the "b" move of the wave 4, wait for a clear break of the box to sell.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 7th of September   from 8:00 GMT+1)



forex trading regulations

Free Trading Service Sneak Peek April 28 (updated) ~ forex trading nz

You have no idea how many emails I get about trading services being absolute garbage. I hear story after story about how many companies are just scam artists. So I had a thought... I will contact several trading companies I know about and ask them to show their stuff live on camera for a day. 

I did this for several reasons.

1. If a trading signal company is legit, they will have no problem showing off what they have to offer.

2. This is also to show a little snippet of how each company does things.

3. I wanted to offer a free look inside the daily trade calls of different services because many traders are reluctant to try a new service at all. They have been reamed by scam artists for so long that they trust no one.

Now I sent many companies offers to participate. The majority turned me down. Several of these companies had a reason for doing so. Just because they are not on the list below does not mean they are scam artists.  The companies below are the ones willing to participate so I commend them for being confident in their services.

On Tuesday April 28, these companies will open up their services for free for everyone for a few hours. There are no log in credentials or free trial sign ups. Just click on the Live Feed URL and watch them in action. And when its over, its over.



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Ok guys, we have a little schedule for that day. There will be several live feeds. I dont know the end times as each company can end their feed whenever they feel the need to do so but I do have start times for you.

Also I have no control over what each company chooses to share with you. If you have questions about their service, please contact them directly. Dont contact me unless you are asking about Joaquin Trading because I cant speak for anyone but myself.



This will take place April 28, 2015



1. Alpha Trading Signals

Our first participant is Joshua Murakami who runs Alpha Trading Signals. He will be calling trades that will be posted in Nadex Trading Ideas around 5:30-6:30pm Eastern on Monday Night, April 27, the night before. These trades should expire on Tuesday April 28. Contact him at  https://www.facebook.com/joel.murakami

2. Slick Trade

Our Second Participant is Slick Trade. They will begin their feed around 7am Eastern on Tuesday April 28. The URL to the feed is https://zoom.us/j/5194900922 so all you need to do to see what they have to offer is just click on the link and watch. You may contact Slick Trade by visiting http://slicktrade.net/

3. Joaquin Trading

Our third participant is Joaquin Trading. We will begin our feed at 9:30am Eastern on Tuesday April 28. We will be focusing on the 5 minute binaries on Nadex and showing buy/sell signals right there on the screen all day long. Our live feed URL is https://www.uberconference.com/joaquintrading so just click the link and start watching. You can visit us at joaquintrading.com

4. TWT

Our fourth Participant is TWT. They will begin their live feed at any time on Tuesday April 28. Just click this link https://zoom.us/j/4427149930 and you can watch to see how Trey does it. You can contact TWT by sending Trey a message on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/trey.redd

5. Traden

Our fifth participant is Traden. They will begin their live feed at 12pm Eastern on Tuesday April 28. If you want to see how they roll, justc click the link here https://zoom.us/j/3023511868 around lunch time. You can visit traden here https://www.tradengroup.com/








Happy Trading!







forex trading nz

Gold Trading 08 19 (updated) ~ forex trading definition

New Week luck and success !
Intraday gold trading strategy :
Sell limit : 1390 usd/oz 
Take Profit : 1370 usd/oz
Stop loss: 1400 
Hopefully luck ! :)
Gold Trading Strategy 08/19/2013, Current prices 1376 usd/oz
Gold 08/19/2013

forex trading definition

The Atinalla Project A Well Laid Out Plan For Long Term Capitalization in Forex Trading ~ forex trading karachi

With the development of seven different systems within Asirikuy, the testing of these system on live accounts and the development of adequate tools for draw down analysis. I have realized that it is time for us to start a well laid out plan in Asirikuy for long term capitalization. Up until now, since the performance of joint portfolios was not known there was no clear information of what a "good portfolio" would be and what money adding tactics would work best to ensure that our portfolios would have the best performance over long periods of time. However, after modifying the experts to work with an internal balance solution and analyzing their joint simulations, it is safe to say that we now have a very good idea of what seems to be possible using Asirikuy automated trading systems.

Today I am very proud to announce another milestone in the development of Asirikuy, the start of the Atinalla project. This word which - you guessed right - comes from the Quechua language of ancient Bolivian, Colombian and Peruvian natives simply means "possible". I want to be absolutely clear in that what I am about to release does sound too good to be true and in order to be absolutely honest I will tell you that I cannot guarantee that we will obtain the results given below. What I can guarantee is that we will have clear profit, draw down and worst-case scenario targets and even though this may be experimental, it may prove a reality over time if the analysis is correct.

The objective of the Atinalla project is simple. I want to get a dedicated trader from an initial investment of 1000 USD to a five figure yearly income in 10 to 15 years by using purely mechanical trading systems. To do this I have paired up different Asirikuy systems - which up until now have back/live testing consistency - and I have designed a strict yearly money addition protocol of 1200 USD and a way of trading the systems that ensures maximum profitability.

I have also realized that with my particular choice of systems, the actual continuous compounding effect is detrimental to yearly profits as favoring the previously most profitable systems appears not to be the best tactic. I suspect that this is probably due to the fact that expert advisors have years of high profitability followed by much less profitable periods and having all experts always start the year with the same capital offers a much better effect in the long term. By resetting the initial balance of the systems each year to make them all trade the same initial capital (plus any yearly additions) will make the systems achieve much higher profit targets in combination. This is evident when you look at the yearly profit and draw down targets shown below.
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Since this includes separate backtests for each system for each year, it can be safe to say that the "starting point" of the portfolio is not extremely relevant to draw down targets. The maximum draw down achieved by the above portfolio during the 10 year period is roughly 18% and the profit target of the portfolio is in average 65% after ten years. The standard deviation of the profit percentage is huge (32%) showing that if yearly profitability in the long term follows a normal distribution (of course, this is an assumption but the current data suggests it) we may go from 161% to -31% years in the very long term. However the standard deviation for draw downs is much lower and this analysis suggests that yearly draw downs may go from 1% to 25% in the long term. The year 2010 - which has not ended yet - was not taken into account for the average profit and draw down analysis. The maximum days of draw down have an average of 99 but the standard deviation - which is quite large - suggests that we may have a maximum yearly draw down period near 230 days in the future.
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A graph of the above mentioned yearly profit and draw down figures shows what appears to be a great trading portfolio achieving profit over all years during the past 10 years and having extremely moderate draw downs consequence of the hedging character of the different strategies. Of course, there are some years in which the temporary draw down comes near the experts yearly profit but in the end all years end up with higher profits when compared with draw downs.
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One of the most interesting things I thought I would do was to calculate the 2010 results for this portfolio using current Asirikuy live trading data. Using the systems included in the portfolio (with some live accounts having fortunately the same risk level, making them adequate for comparison) and adding their results together I could get a profit of 35%. However, one of the experts used on the portfolio has only been trading since April so this profit figure - which neglects a very important January and February profit shown in backtesting - is below what should have been achieved for this year. This shows not only that the live portfolio is in line with the backtests for the year (backtests do not include May, reason why live testing shows about 10% more profit) but that the experts do have synergy when traded together.

What we have with Atinalla is a clear target and a clear way to achieve it based on sound evidence. The systems will be traded in a portfolio, resetting the initial balance each year (to the final yearly capital plus addition for all systems) and doing a 1200 USD addition starting with a 1000 USD initial investment. We will expect a maximum draw down of 18% and our worst case scenario will be a 36% draw down level. We have a projected average profit level of 65% after ten years but we will expect anything from -31% to 161%. The important thing here is NOT to look at the profit values but at the draw down targets, we have absolutely clear, well designed worst-case scenario levels which will trigger our "stop trading" signal if they are reached. So if anyone trading this portfolio reaches a 36% draw down, no more trading will be done since the systems have become to risky to continue trading.

Of course, Asirikuy members will find a page this Sunday including all Atinalla testing information as well as the settings required to run each expert advisor and a video explaining how I did all the tests, how to load the experts on your account, etc. Doing this analysis to come up with the first Atinalla portfolio took a long time but many other portfolios will certainly come as time evolves and new good combinations become apparent. We will also open up the Atinalla challenge for people willing to start trading the above portfolio with a commitment to stick with it from 2 to 10 years on a VPS.

Will Atinalla provide people with financial freedom ? Will it be able to achieve a five figure income for someone after 10-15 years ? Will we reach the worst-case scenario ? Will people endure the harsh draw down periods and low profitability years ? All these questions will be answered within the next ten years within Asirikuy :o) If you would like to learn more about my trading systems and how you too can build expert advisors based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !


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