Gold trading strategy release July 24 (updated) ~ forex trading apps for iphone

Currently, gold prices have fallen about 1299 targets as expected. The next target is 1291. 
However, prices in 1291 will face strong resistance. Details as follows:
1. Fibonacci rectracement : 161.8%
2. Fibonacci expansion : 138.2 %
3. White trend line 

 

Strategy:

Buy limit: 1289 - 1291

Stoploss: 1284

Take Profit: 1299

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Probability of staying within a range ~ forex trading oil

Clients,

Today I will discuss a topic that is so great. I I wish it was talked about more in the industry but as of yet, it is still a hush hush topic. I cant speculate as to why but here goes.

Based upon past performance of various securities, there can be calculated a probability of a price range move within a specified amount of time. For instance, If the US Tech 100 has moved X points per hour, day, or week over the last X bars, there can be a calculation to figure out the average range as well as a probability of it staying within or moving outside of a range over the next hour, day or week.

Let us take a look at a live example as of today.

Now look at the chart. The expected range is etween 10 and 18 points of movement between 11am and 12pm eastern on the US Tech 100 for today.

There is a 68% chance it will stay in this range and a 32% chance it will move out of this range.

If price moves toward the top of the range and you can sell it for $32 at the top of the range, you will be using a break even strategy. If you can sell it for $50 at the top of the range, you will be using a profitable strategy.

Look at it this way....

Over the course of 1,000 trades, If you are selling for $32, then you will make $21,760 n 680 wins. Likewise, you will lose $21,760 on 320 losses.

Now look at the difference of selling for $50

680 wins = $34,000
320 losses = $16,000
Total P/L = +$18,000

Here is another way to play. If you are comfortable losing a lot and making gigantic winners, you can reverse it.

Lets assume you buy for $10 or sell for $90 to try to capture gains if price moves outside of the range.
Now remember you have to sell or buy back at $50. Let us look at 1,000 trades.

320 wins = $28,800
680 losses = $6,800
Total P/L = $22,000

So it is 10:30am eastern right now. Lets see what price on the US Tech 100 does before 12pm. Let us observe if this time period will be a 68% day or a 32% day.










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How we Have Been Fooled An Evaluation of Traditional Indicator Setups ~ forex trading in houston

One of the first things you learn when you go into the field of technical analysis is that there are a series of well-defined setups that were used by the fathers of the field to extract profits from the financial markets. It is very hard not to ask if there is really any merit to any of these methods - usually developed around stocks - in forex trading. I had always wondered if there was actually any real profit potential behind the old advice "buy when the RSI is below 30 and sell when it is above 70" or similar indicator based suggestions. On todays post I will talk to you about the potential of entries based on the "standard" traditional indicator setups and if we can really develop profitable systems based on this kind of trading. You will see that traditional indicator rules do not work very well in forex trading and that a deep mathematical understanding of the indicators is necessary to design setups that really work.

I bet you have also wondered if you gain any statistically meaningful advantage by following the textbook advice regarding indicator usage. I certainly believed when I started trading that the traditional indicator setups were the key to achieve profitability. I traded for a few months by using the Stochastic oscillator exactly as the traditional rules indicate (buy when below 20, sell when above 80) but I failed to use this technique successfully for many reasons. The first and most important is that entries do not determine a systems profitability, merely its potential and - not surprisingly - the money management I was using (lot sizing plus exit criteria) did not make up a long term profitable system.

Many years after this happened I continue to wonder, is there any merit to these traditional indicator entries ? Given that now I have the tools to evaluate the mathematical expectancy (please read this article to learn more about my definition and use of mathematical expectancy on entries) of these entries and therefore their potential for the development of a long term profitable system, I decided to do this analysis with 10 traditional indicators and their usual setups. The results confirmed what I had suspected for a long time, there is no merit to traditional indicator setups in forex trading, at least on the forex majors (which are the pairs I evaluated).

Evaluating the mathematical expectancy over 10 to 100 periods on the one hour to daily charts (to get accurate results) showed that these entries have a negative mathematical expectancy, pointing out that there is no merit in the development of long term profitable systems following these trading tactics. The mathematical expectancy increases as you reach higher time frames but almost no indicators have any positive results whatsoever. Perhaps the only one that reaches positive results on some time frames and periods is the Stochastic Oscillator but the positive edge is minimal and overall it would prove to be terribly hard to develop a long term profitable system based on the "traditional use" of this indicator.

In the end I believe this is the exact reason why people always explain how to use these indicators without ever giving you any guidance about the potential of these entries in concrete terms. It turns out that the traditional setups of these indicators do not work very well and therefore anyone building entries based on these traditional notions is bound to end up with - in the best case - a long term profitable system with extremely poor qualities.

It should be clear however that this does not mean that these indicators are useless since through adequate interpretation of the calculations done over price it is possible to design trading strategies that uses them in an effective and powerful fashion (as Watukushay FE so clearly shows). What I am trying to say here is that the development of profitable systems in forex trading using the "traditional trading setups" for most indicators is likely to fail since the potential of these entries - evaluated through their mathematical expectancy - is negative.

So next time you read a textbook telling you that the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator or MACD is used in A or B way, think twice before you start trading or even designing a system based on this knowledge. Mathematical expectancy analysis of entries as well as a true understanding of the underlying calculations made by the indicators are vital to design and trade effective strategies. During the next few weeks I will make up a video on Asirikuy showing all these analysis and how some simple modifications based on sound analysis can dramatically affect the mathematical expectancy of a given entry logic.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can design systems with realistic profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Pair Trade instructions ~ forex trading on f1 visa

For my clients...

Here are the instructions and rules of the pairs trade I will send to you at 6pm tonight.

1. In order for this type of trade to have a chance to work, you have to take BOTH trades and you have to hold them till expiration OR close them both with a profit of more than $20 (include your commissions of 3.60) so actually hold this till you have a profit of $23.60 or more. You can not take one or close one or it will not work.

2. If you take the trade, do it in DEMO only because this trade may be a bit scary at times. Prices should move back together but they may also move wide apart from each other so remember...DEMO only till you know how this type of trade makes you feel emotionally. This trade is based on price discrepencies in the market

3. This type of trade has a high win percentage and if you like it, I will look for more for you guys. They can be taken every day. They usually win for 4-5 days in a row then lose for a couple of days in a row...win for 4 or 55...lose for 2...so forth and so on.

Here is an equity graph of a test of what it looks like.

Click on the picture to enlarge it. Look at the graph on the right. This is a potential equity graph over 3 weeks. I posted a longer version in the facebook group "nadex trading ideas" for you.

alrighty...until 6pm eastern...

Yall are awesome! thank you for all the neat little chats we have throughout the day!

OK...Until 6pm eastern


Thanks

Ryan

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Gold trading strategy 23 1 (updated) ~ forex trading books pdf free download

Sell stop: 1231 USD/oz
Stop loss: 1238 USD/oz
Take Profit : 1222 USD/oz
Price at time of writing : 1234 USD/oz

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Forex trading strategy EUR USD February 11 (updated) ~ forex trading banks

Forex trading strategy EUR/USD February 11,2014. Orders should last 2 days.
Sell limit : 1.3665 - 1.3690
Stop loss: 1.3722
Target : 1.3580
Video analysis forex trading

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Simple 1 2 3 Swings Strategy ~ forex trading done for you

This Straegy is based on the same study of defining support and resistance levels and trading upon the fact of their violation.

A trading setup requires only an open chart and no restrictions for the currency or timing preferences.

Entry rules: Once the price makes it through the “pivot Line” - dotted white line on the figure below (drawn using the latest price peak) - and closes above (for uptrend) or below (for downtrend) the line buy/sell accordingly.

Exit rules: not set. However, exit can be found using Fibonacci method; or traders can measure the distance between point 2 and point 3 and project it on the chart for exit.

Additions: as an additional tool traders can use MACD (12, 26, 9). The rules for entry then will be next - let’s take a SELL order: When MACD lines cross downwards, you look for 1-2-3 set-up to form. When the price starts “attacking” the “pivot Line” you check that MACD is still in SELL mode (two lines are heading down). Once the price closes below the “pivot Line” – place Sell order.

Same chart: MACD (12, 26, 9) is added.

Advantages: gives 100% profitable entries.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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The Three Commandments of the Successful Forex System Trader ~ forex trading jobs in india

Very often people will ask me what is needed to achieve some success in automated trading. I get asked if it is actually possible to live "making money while you sleep" and to exploit market inefficiencies as the market changes. Often people I explain my line of work to are extremely skeptical. For example a person I met a few weeks ago at my sisters wedding asked how this was possible and that if this was possible, why isnt everyone making a profit from the forex market. Oh well, it certainly is useful when you talk to people who have absolutely nothing to do with trading - as a matter of fact - I had not found myself in such a difficult position to explain something for quite a bit of time. In the end, I told her that - in analogy with getting to heaven and the ten commandments - people do not succeed with the use of automated trading systems because they do not follow some very simple principles. I explained to her that there are simple rules that need to be followed when you trade these systems and that deviations - even if only small - can end up making a person fail to achieve the ultimate goal of long term profitability in automated trading.

On todays post I want to talk to you about these "three commandments" I explained to her and why each one of these simple rules is absolutely vital to get success in trading, specifically with mechanical trading systems. Of course, some of you may disagree and some of you may agree but in the end these are the rules I have found to work for me and what I believe "raises the bar" so that only a few traders are able to get to this point. Evidently I have not been enjoying this position for decades and therefore I am still tempted and strive to stay with my "three commandments of the mechanical system trader", hopefully following these three seemingly simple - yet very complex rules - will keep me in my way towards a few decades of forex automated trading profitability :o). Do you want to know more about these rules and whether or not they apply to your current situation ? Keep reading to find out !

1. You shall understand what you are doing. Perhaps this eliminates most of the people out there who are currently wanting to become profitable in the long term using these systems. Understanding is a vital part of success and achieving a profitable position in automated trading will simply not be possible - from what I have seen and experienced - if you do not perfectly understand everything you are doing, the systems you are using and how automated trading works. Understanding needs to be deep and should NOT be merely superficial. Understanding should cover deep knowledge about your systems logic, the inefficiency exploited, etc. If you have not gone through at least a few years worth of trades of the system you are trading in a trade by trade basis doing a trade by trade in-depth analysis then you still need to go a long way before you can consider that you truly know what you are trading. In the end, any effort you wont do is an effort somebody else will make and that someone will take your place as a profitable mechanical trader. So if you want to avoid efforts, this is not the place to be.

2. You shall know what to expect. After knowing what you are doing comes to know what you should expect. Traders who are successful using automated trading systems know exactly what to expect from their systems, they know all the characteristics of the systems they trade and precisely what their predicted draw down and profit periods are like. People who understand their automated trading systems and analyze them extensively know the accuracy of their simulations, the length of profit and draw down periods and all other characteristics of systems. Again - as with understanding - we are not talking about a superficial understanding of what to expect. Anything that happens with your system that you do not take into account within your plan will make you unsuccessful so you have to be prepared for every possible case. What if your system reaches a draw down deeper than the simulations ? what if the system has double the number of predicted consecutive loses ? You should know what the meaning of these events are related to your systems performance.

3. You shall evaluate your systems. The last commandment of the successful mechanical trader is to evaluate. You cannot be successful if you trade a system with blind faith - because every system can fail - and continuously evaluating the performance of your trading system and the current market conditions is of incredible importance to achieve success. Knowing when a worst-case scenario will be reached, if the current draw down cycle is too long, if the system is now too risky to be traded, etc is one of the most important aspects of successful mechanical trading.

For people who read this blog who are also Asirikuy members the three above mentioned commandments may have sounded very familiar as I refer to them continuously within the Asirikuy website videos as the Asirikuy mantra : understand, expect and evaluate. From my experience these three simple things are the only actual skills you need to be a successful system trader. You simply need to understand, know what to expect and evaluate performance.

Of course, easier said than done :o) Maybe the first point seems to be the hardest - and it probably is- but the second and third are NOT any easier. Knowing what to expect from a system requires extensive analysis and it requires you to have a very clear understanding about the role and limitations of simulations and the whole way in which the system changes as market conditions start to develop, not to mention a deep understanding of system cycles, their extent and composition. Evaluating is also not very easy to do since it requires the confidence to run your system on live accounts and to weather the profit and draw down cycles trusting your expectancy analysis to be right.

My advice for you is therefore extremely simple. If you want to be successful in automated trading, follow the above three rules and I can guarantee that you will - at least- get to the point where I am today :o). If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can build and trade your own automated trading systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Five Steps to Build a Forex Trading Plan What Every Trader Should Now ~ forex trading easy money

When you go online and start searching for ways in which to become profitable as a forex trader you soon realize that the internet is filled with what seems like very meaningful yet hollow advice. People around forums and educational websites will tell you several key points of advice such as "plan your trade, trade your plan", "cut your loses short" and "follow the trend" but they always fall short of telling you any practical ways in order to achieve the above mentioned objectives. This is one of the main reasons why it is so terribly hard for new traders to achieve success, there is an inherent lack of practical advice online which means that most traders have to learn how to do things from experience, a very lengthy and painful process that usually carries with it a lot of financial loss and frustration.

On todays post I want to make this easier for those out there who have just started or those who are still looking for some guidance in how to become profitable in the long term. In the following paragraphs I am going to highlight the first five practical steps you should go through when building a trading plan. I can guarantee that if you follow these steps it will be much easier for you to become profitable since you will gain a deeper level of understanding of what you are doing and what the outcomes of your trades will possibly be.

But what is a trading plan ? A trading plan is merely a set of rules that allow a trader to make decisions under any possible set of conditions. I allows you to remove emotions from trading and to be able to face different circumstances knowing what you will do in advance independent of the way in which market movements develop. Having a trading plan is the first key to success in trading since it allows you to tackle the market without surprises and without using your emotions when your knowledge fails. Since a trading plan covers all possible scenarios, emotions can be left out completely. How do you come up and make a trading plan ? Keep reading to find out.

Step 1. Figure out the type of market movement you want to capture. The first thing you need to do is figure out what type of movement you will attempt to exploit for profits. Here you need to take into account the amount of free time you have and the amount of stress you can withstand. If you cannot stare at the screen 12 hours a day choosing small time frames will be a bad idea. In general I advice new traders to use the 4 hour or daily time frames as these allow them to have a trading plan that only requires them to be in front of the computer an hour or just a few minutes each day. Aiming for daily or 4 hour trends is a good way to start as a trader.

Step 2. Design your first entry logic. Analyze several trades you would have liked to get into and come up with an entry logic that would allow you to get into the market on those trades. Now you need to take that logic and EVALUATE it over extensive periods of time (5-10 years) so that you can know if your entry does indeed have a positive mathematical expectancy. On this first analysis you merely want to see if price does move in your favor and for how much it moves in your favor when entering trades based on this criteria. The main reason why new traders never use systems that work and second-guess their systems all the time is their lack of statistical analysis. Many traders use systems that dont even have an edge over their entries without ever realizing that this is the case. If you use something that is doomed to fail for the beginning your chance of success will be easily reduces. If you are a manual trader you should consider getting Umaki to help you backtest your discretionary strategy over a long period of time.

Step 3. Make sure your systems is not static. Now that you are going to design the exits for your system you should take into account that systems that are static (for example a system that uses a 20 pip stop loss and a 100 pip take profit) almost always fail as market conditions change since their ability to adapt to the way in which market volatility fluctuates is nonexistent. Your exits should be dynamic (based on indicators or discretionary criteria (S&R levels for example). You can also use volatility adjusted fixed TP and SL levels if you want to or you can design these levels around support and resistance levels (this is the best solution if you are designing a discretionary strategy).

Step 4. Design Exits and Lot sizing. After coming up with an entry logic that has a positive mathematical expectancy in the long term you should now design and evaluate exit and lot sizing criteria to exploit this inefficiency. Since you have already done an analysis of where price goes in average once you enter a trade some exits will be obvious to you. For example price may tend to rally up to the next important support or resistance level or it may go in your favor 50% of the daily range. Once you have an initial mathematical expectancy analysis coming up with exits wont be very hard and it will allow you to build discretionary or mechanical exit points that will work with your strategy.

Step 5. Understand the Risk and Profit characteristics of your plan. The large majority of new traders start trading systems for which the profit and draw down characteristics are absolutely unknown. I have always been amazed at how people can trade a strategy without the slightest idea of how deep draw down periods will be, how monthly returns are distributed or what draw down level will suggest that the plan is no longer working. The MOST IMPORTANT THING you need to do is to evaluate your plan through a LONG period of historical testing so that you know what you will be facing.

In the end your ability to succeed in trading will depend simply on how sound your trading plan is and how capable you are of executing what you have designed. If you have designed your trading plan correctly you can then answer simple questions like :

• What is your expected maximum draw down ?
• What is the average draw down period length ?
• What is the distribution of monthly returns expected to be ?
• What is the average compounded yearly profit ?
• What is the probability to have a winning or a losing month ?
  

If you are unable to answer the above mentioned questions then your trading plan is currently flawed or at least you have not evaluated or understood it very well. Understanding of what you are trading is VITAL for success and failing to know if your trading plan does indeed have a statistical edge and a possibility to survive in the long term will mark a constant failure for most traders. My advice is therefore simple, develop a plan you KNOW has a positive statistical edge, a plan you know and a plan you understand fully from a statistical point of view.

If you would like to learn more about trading plans and how you too can develop mechanical trading systems with a full evaluation of all their statistical characteristics please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Gold trading strategy in day 3 6 (updated) ~ forex trading beginners

Gold trading strategy : the main down trend.
Sell stop: 1333 USD/oz
Stop loss : 1341 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1321 USD/oz

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Forex trading strategy EUR USD in day ~ forex trading blogs

Forex trading strategy EUR/USD release Feb 21,2014:
Sell now : 1.3717 - 1.3730
Stop loss : 1.3770
Take Profit : 1.3640

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Watukushay No 5 An Excellent System Ready for Release ~ forex trading gambling

After a few months of testing and development I am glad to announce that the first release candidate for Watukushay No.5 is ready to be traded. Some days ago I talked about the first beta release and how I wanted to explore community based development before releasing the EA and after some limited success with this idea I have found enough profitable results for this system as to release the EA to all Asirikuy members. The release candidate of Watukushay No.5 will be ready for live trading featuring adequate error handling and functional decomposition with high-quality code that will allow us to have reliable and well-executed live trading results. During the next few paragraphs I want to share with you the importance of Watukushay No.5s achievements, a little bit about what I was able to achieve with this system and what it represents to the Asirikuy community.

As I mentioned on the previous post about this experts beta, Watukushay No.5 is a universal daily breakout system that is able to enter the market on a wide variety of circumstances adapting itself to the inherent characteristics of each different daily breakout it enters. Watukushay No.5 therefore belong to the same family as the turtle trading system and Kutichiy, aiming to profit from directional movements by entering the market after a given price value is broken towards the same side. However, Watukushay No.5 also includes a "fade mechanism" which also allows it to trade against breakouts and increases its flexibility to be profitable on currency pairs where fading certain movements is more profitable than trading the breakouts.

When I released the beta I had found the first EUR/USD profitable settings and I had some preliminary results for other currency pairs. Right now I am proud to say that I have reached profitable settings for this EA on the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. This is important since we only have a few systems that are able to trade the 4 majors and Watukushay No.5 will be able to introduce a lot of diversification power through its results on different currency pairs. Adding to this is the fact that the most profitable results (achieving a higher than 2:1 average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down ratio) belong to the USD/CHF currency pair and NOT to the EUR/USD, giving us the power to diversify greatly against other trading systems like Teyacanani and Watukushay No.2 which achieve excellent results on this currency pair.
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Perhaps one of the most important things about this EA is its ability to constitute a viable portfolio on its own. The above image shows you the equity curve with yearly balance restarts (meaning that the internal balance of each instance is reset to the general account balance every 12 months) for Watukushay No.5 when trading the 4 majors at the same time. during the past 10 years. The portfolio of this EA achieves an average compounded yearly profit of 44% coupled with a maximum draw down level of 16% an excellent result only achievable up until now with a few other portfolios.

Despite the fact that all instances trade the same system it seems that maximum draw down periods do not tend to overlap since the different currency pairs are able to exploit their particular breakout inefficiency only under select market conditions that rotate amongst them. This in turn allows the different instances to hedge their draw down periods and achieve the above mentioned results which show this to be the case. Below you can also see the monthly profit chart for the portfolio obtained with 10 year backtests and a 1 year balance restarting technique. The system shows a high population of profitable months with a good number of highly profitable months that ensure the portfolios draw down remains under control. It is also worth mentioning that Watukushay No.5 was developed with all Watukushay Project principles in mind. The system was therefore developed with great care so that reliable simulations could be achieved.
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In summary, Watukushay No.5 is a great addition to Asirikuy featuring profitable results with similar draw down and profit targets on the 4 majors, a milestone achievement for Asirikuy portfolio system development. The system also showed excellent portfolio results, reason why its contributions to our long term profitability are bound to be important. Right now I have opened a poll within the Asirikuy community forum to choose a name for this EA and when the name is ready I will release the systems live trading version coupled with at least 2 account for live testing within Asirikuy.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in system development and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Trading Strategy 34 ~ forex trading resources

Trade of the Week: USD/JPY H1: 20-21 August: +5% Profit (+191 pips)

For more details and examples of trade, click "Examples of Trade" in the menu

On the 20th at the end of the european sessions, we have a second entry after a first break and a pullback. This break would be a double break with an initial stop loss above the box at 35 pips. On H4, the alligator is opening. We take the double break and the price falls, we exit the next day before the closure of the week for +191 pips, +5% profit. For the traders who let the trade runs over the weekend, this is the jackpot: A +15%-20% profit trade due to the fall of the asiatic markets!

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Gold Trading Strategy 08 29 (updated) ~ forex trading cost

Gold is revised down match what is expected of me.
Today there are 2 important fundamental news affecting prices.
Thats news index GDP and Unemployment Claims.
Both basic information are expected good for the health dollar.
So, I think todays gold prices will continue downward adjustment.
Trading Strategy :
Sell limit      : 1418
Stoploss     : 1424
Take Profit : 1396
Price at time of writting : 1407 usd/oz
Hope luck ! :)

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Introducing Variety A New Blogging Project ~ forex trading laptop

Today we are going to go a little bit away from the usual articles about currency trading so I apologize to my regular audience if you were expecting the usual - hopefully well written - article dealing with forex automated trading or other revelant aspects of the forex market. However today and tomorrow I am going to be talking to you about some interesting developments that have happened within the last month (dont worry, tomorrow it will be about automated trading), which have prompted me to make some new projects to improve the way in which things are evolving.

This post will be dealing with a new project I came up with which has absolutely nothing to do with automated trading or forex for that matter. This new project started as a need for variety as I felt my life and projects were being limited by my work as a currency trader. Certainly being a day trader is fun and automated forex trading is an amazingly complex and wonderful field but in addition to developing systems, investments, asirikuy and this blog I needed to do something else which stimulated other areas of my - now heavily left hemisphere oriented - brain.
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What did I come up with ? Well, since I love helping people and I do feel I have substantial knowledge in other fields which I developed within my quest for profitability in trading and my studies as a scientist, I decided to start a new blog about just whatever I could think off that I could write to help people improve their lives. This new blog called "Entirely For You" (you can always access it directly at http://www.entirely4you.com) is my attempt to show people another side of me which will have- hopefully - a lot of practical and theoretical knowledge to help people in their everyday lives. (for those of you who have read my blog for a while- yes- I did have a name in Quechua :o) but it was already taken !)

My objectives with this blog are clearly not financial but only recreational in the sense that I love writting and writting about other things besides automated trading is a way to "ease my workload" and prevent a burn out which would have certainly happened in a few months or years ifI had continued this excessive focus on automated trading systems. Sure, I will continue to post daily here and do all the weekly work as usual but my new blog will provide me with some relief when I feel like writting about something else and hopefully it will also give people a good deal of information derived from the little but applied wisdom that I have acquired through my life.

Of course this blog also means that you will get to know me better as a person, something which I think is vital when you need to develop trust in someone else, you will learn about my opinions relevant to other subjects and definitely some other aspects of my personality. This not only means that you will know that I am definitely a flesh and bone human being but that I have absolutely nothing to hide from you and that everything I do in my life is approached from the most ethical, honest and proffesional way I can :o). So I hope you enjoy this new website and you visit it often ! (update frequency will vary but probably I will post once or twice a week) Please leave any comments or opinions you may have ! :o)

On a side note, there is also another surprise for you related with automated trading which will be released tomorrow (hint : notice that new orange box at the bottom of the page ?)

If you would also like to learn more about my work in automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Trading Strategy 4 ~ forex trading pro system

Trade of the Week: GBP/USD H1: 22-25 February: Superbe +6% (+289 pips)


For more details and examples of trade, click "Examples of Trade" in the menu


On the 22nd, we have a downtrend on H4 so we are looking for a setup on H1. At Francfort Open, we have a lower level of the H4 fractal box at 48 pips from the H1 upper level of box. We place a PO which is triggered, the prices drops quickly. We have a first signal exit (break of the fracatle box) the next day but this is below the alligator and a quick look at H4 ewave shows that the bars are peaking therefore we choose to ignore this signal preferring to use the red/green lines as SL. This will allow to stay longer into the trade and we exit the 25th at the break of the box (this time above the alligator) for +289 pips, +6% profit. Once again, another very profitable classical trade!

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Broker Conspiracy Theories Are they True ~ forex trading get rich quick

If people new to forex trading have anything in common it is the overwhelming belief in the broker conspiracy theories. Ask ten people on their road to become successful traders about what they think regarding forex brokers and they will tell you that the main reason (or one of the main reasons) why they cannot profit as much as they want is because their brokers "play with them" in such a way that trading profitably becomes impossible (or much harder at least). The reasons why there is such a widespread belief in the broker conspiracy are many but the real question to ask is, is this conspiracy real ? Do brokers willingly play with their customers and mess with their execution and accounts in such a way that profitability is removed ? On todays post I will talk about these issues, giving you my opinion about the broker conspiracy theory and the consequence this has on your trading.

You have just bought your first extremely profitable scalping system, simulations show great results (although they are unreliable for this type of systems), your demo account shows great results and you are ready to jump into a live account with your first forex broker. You open up the account, fund it, get your VPS and start to trade your EA only to notice that your demo and live accounts almost never agree and your demo account is taking almost twice as many positions as your live trading account. Upon checking your live account you see a lot of spread widening, re-quotes and slippage that makes you think : the rumors were true, my broker is messing up my execution.

To tell you the truth, I do not believe in broker conspiracy theories because it is not in the main interest of a broker to harm their customers performance due to the fact that they make money from the spreads and this means that the longer it takes for a customer to lose their account, the more money they make. Generally what people perceive as their broker "messing with them" is nothing but the harsh reality of trading in the real market. Sometimes if the broker is a "market maker" this may become a little bit shady since the broker may make some decisions to protect itself from quick positioning or scalping, which they do not like due to the fact that they cannot properly hedge their exposure when such small and fast positions are opened. Such decisions may include spread widening, re-quotes, etc.

I have had my fair deal of experience with people in the broker industry (well known brokers at least) reason why I can tell you that most of the things you hear about are nothing but myths. Brokers are not "evil market makers" making money when you lose money, that to me seems like a childish way of putting things such as the brokers are "the bad guys" and you become the poor good guy/gal who could only make it if he or she wasnt screwed as much by the big guys. The first thing you need to do here is to take responsibility for your profits and your losses. Forex brokers are not responsible for your opening and closing of positions and therefore the fact that you attempt to use systems that simply dont work under real market conditions is not their fault.

However I always believe that you should always work with the worst possible case available such that your trading and decisions are as robust as possible. If there is a broker conspiracy and brokers will relentlessly prosecute and make certain systems (like scalpers) totally nonviable then you should focus on trading a system that is shielded from the power your broker has over your trading. Certainly it would not be very intelligent to trade a given system that you know depends greatly on execution variables your broker controls. If brokers do seek to make traders lose, then why in the world would you want to make it easier for them ?

In the end, if you profit or if you dont depends entirely on the decisions you make. If you trade systems that are very vulnerable to your brokers bidding then you will fall prey to the problems of real market execution and - if existent - to your brokers endless hunger for new traders flesh. As I said before the key here is to take responsibility for your trading and find systems that will allow you to trade with the smallest degree of dependency on live execution variables. Systems that trade in the medium or long term which do not have small take profit and stop loss targets will make you "immune" to any conspiracy since your broker will not be able to control your trading through the manipulation of execution variables.

However it is interesting here to note that I have never heard a profitable trader complain about execution related problems as a "broker conspiracy" since experienced traders know that this is a characteristic of the real market and that being successful despite their existence is one of the jobs YOU have as a profitable trader. It is irrelevant if these problems are or arent caused by your broker, if they are there and you want to be profitable then make your trading style such that these problems will have a small effect on your account balance. If you are suffering because of execution issues you should know that your trading style is what gives them the room to harm your wallet.

If you would like to know more about automated trading system development and how you too can design likely profitable trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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The Daily Time Frame Five Reason to Love This Time Chart ~ forex trading hours christmas

I believe there is some sort of obsession right now in the forex trading community with the lower time frames. Perhaps it seems more profitable or glamorous to trade within the minutes and to get very small profitable trades with high lot sizes but the actual reality of the matter is that lower time frame systems with higher frequency trading often achieve the same degree of success that higher time frame strategies with much more effort and time requirements (plus a LOT more commission paid up in spread). I for one believe that the use of the higher time frames is unequivocally one of the best tools people have to become successful forex traders with low stress levels, I personally absolutely love the daily time frame for my long term trading strategies and it is in fact the lowest time frame I ever use when personally handling an account.

What is so great about the daily time frame ? What makes it such a great tool for anyone who wants to become a successful trader (using either manual or automated techniques) ? Within this article I will give you the five main reason why I absolutely love the daily time frame and why I believe that system development and use within it is an extremely educational and profitable endeavor most traders should - at least - try for a year or two.

Just a few minutes each day. One of the great things about daily charts is that - as the name implies - they only have one new bar each day. This allows you to easily execute any trading strategy with very little time since it only requires a few minutes to check the new bar and input the signals. You know the exact time when the bar is closed so it is a chart that allows you to execute strategies when you dont have or you dont want to spend a lot of time in front of charts.

As successful as the lower time frames. Systems on the daily charts can be as profitable as systems traded on much lower time frames and - as a matter of fact - many times the trading costs are much smaller due to the reduced trading time. It is a myth that shorter time frames are inherently more profitable, there are daily strategies and short time strategies that work great but strategies in the daily time frames usually aim for very high gains over long periods of time reason why they may take more time to show their true profitability levels.

Broker dependency is VERY small. After using a script to remove Sunday candles (if present) daily candles show very little variation between different brokers. This means that the results of your system will be similar between brokers and the broker will be able to do very little to alter the results of your strategy since any slippage, re-quotes, etc are bound to represent only an extremely small percentage of your average profitable trade.

Always trade with the trend. Daily time frames offer you the ability to always trade with the developing trend while smaller time frames may sometimes get to into trades that temporarily go against long term trend direction. This allows you to have more peace of mind since you know that the market is moving with you. It is also true that most successful traders and market movers also use the daily time frame to do their trading so since you are using and looking at what professionals are actually looking at your chances of success are increased.

Stress-free trading. Maybe not entirely but the daily time frames allow you to trade a system and not worry about how it is doing every second. When entering trades on higher time frames small movements are not very significant and therefore you can just set your trade and leave it with confidence that the possibility of something bad ruining it is small. Weekend gaps will most of the time not be a problem since your trading targets will always be very large and the small indecisive days and "blurry" short term charts will not be something you will need to concern yourself with.

Of course there are a few reasons why almost no new traders use daily charts particularly because of their desire to stay within the market a lot and their impatience to get profitable results. Certainly long term trading systems on daily charts are not so glamorous or fancy but they offer easy-to-evaluate trading setups and easy to understand logic that can be applied with confidence when adequate evaluation with profit and worst case scenario targets is achieved. With daily time frame systems this is especially important to do since these systems can usually have long and deep draw down periods that can last several years (alike some short term trading systems) but overall their profitability levels end up being similar to those of short term trading systems.

So in summary I believe that every trader should do at least a few years of trading with a daily time frame based systems at least in parallel with his regular trading activities (if they dont involve this already), just a few minutes everyday, sound robust trading techniques and long term results are some of the great reasons why the use of this time frame has paved the way towards the success of many new forex traders. Certainly you can be the next one :o).

If you would like to learn more about evaluating strategies by programming them into the MQL4 language to get accurate profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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How many total trades are placed on Nadex Its Mind Boggling! ~ forex trading no deposit bonus

Here is 30+ pages of all the trades placed in the past few minutes on The North American Derivatives Exchange. This is transparency and it gives you an idea of the volume Nadex is doing...

http://www.nadex.com/footer/time-and-sales.html
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Spot Gold Trading Strategy 08 26 (updated) ~ forex trading clock

Gold has faced strong sell forces at the 1406
Markets serial rally on Friday when the prices soared from 1397 to 1406 opening.
But at while in town , gold has faced strong sell forces at the 1406, make the price down to under 1400usd/oz quickly, sometimes has to come 1390usd/oz .
Today, I think gold will have adjustments on the lower level. The long term trend, I think gold prices will conquer milestone 1466usd/oz  in September.
Strategy :
Sell stop : 1395 - 1400
Stop loss: 1408
Take Profit : 1380 - 1375
Hope luck !:)

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Too Good to Be True Why it is Never True ~ forex trading los angeles

Yesterday while I was searching some forums and reading the comments of the posters I came across a conversation about the very traditional saying "if it is too good to be true, it probably is". As I read more I saw some very interesting aspects about the way in which the conversation was being carried out, specially the opinion of one of the debaters who was against the hypothesis claiming that is was nothing but mediocre and destructive to a person with an "achieving" personality. Today I want to write a post about my opinion about this "too good to be true" issue and how I feel it is a very valuable piece of common knowledge based on hundreds - or even thousands - of years of human experience. In particular I will discuss its relationship with automated trading and why it is extremely importance in this field
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First of all, we need to understand the nature of this timeless phrase. Why does it exactly mean and what is the power behind it ? What do people mean by "too good to be true" ? Generally this sentence speaks about the overall human experience in the sense that it reflects the expectations of the general public. When someone tells you that a certain endevour sounds "too good to be true" it means that you may be drastically underestimating the efforts or the actual real possibilities of doing what you are intending to do.

As a clear example, imagine that you lived in the 19th century and you told someone "I will be building a machine to fly in one week". They would tell you that it sounds too good to be true and the actual truth is that you would have found the endevour much more time consuming and difficult than what you originally thought. It is worth noting that the saying does not necessarily limit the possibilities of what can be done but generally the manner in which things can be carried out meaning that if something that was "too good to be true" could be done in that way, you wouldnt be the first person doing it and it wouldnt be too good to be true after all, because it would be true.

So how does this all apply to automated trading ? It applies in a very simple way. If it was possible and so simple to turn 500 USD into 1 million in 5 years, then it would have already been done and it wouldnt be considered too good to be true. However, since achieving this extremely high capital returns isnt something which is being done by the worlds top traders or trading organizations (or anybody else for that matter... if you have an example in automated trading I would absolutely love to hear it) then it simply falls within this category with very good reason.
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Is living from automated trading too good to be true ? The fact is that if you are thinking about placing a robot on a trading platform and letting it to work like an ATM for you then it certainly is too good to be true. Othewise dont you think that the thousands of people who have learned about automated trading would be living from it right now? The reality is that most of these people are actually not making any income from automate trading but they are losing money trying to achieve the situation which is just "too good". However - as I implied before - this does not mean that living from automated trading is impossible, it merely signals that the way most people are following is just wrong. Living from automated trading is possible but the truth is that it will require a LOT of study, a LOT of work and MUCH more capital that what you have been told and - not surprisingly - it is not something everybody can do; it is a long journey filled with frustration and hard work which - alike most non-luck based roads towards wealth- is simply not travelled by the vast majority of people.

In my mind, I dont think that the "too good to be true" saying is intended to be discouraging, mediocre or destructive - on the contrary - I think that it is meant to be protective as it certainly points out that the roads towards wealth exist but they are not short and they are not easily travelled. In the end there is nothing special about you or about me and if the easy ways to achieve massive riches in automated trading were really a reality, we would have both achieved that goal without any effort a long time ago (and therefore it wouldnt be too good to be true either !). In reality the best thing you can do for yourself is to find out what can be realistically achieved and put all your hard work into. Forex automated trading - as I have said several times - is not a gold mine for you to avoid work and sit on a beach to drink Margaritas all day. The journey is far harsher and demanding than your average 9 to 5 job, but so is the end much more rewarding.

If you would like to learn more about my perspective in automated trading and how you too can build systems with realistic profit and risk targets which use sound trading tactics to profit from the market please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Gold trading strategy medium term release September 2 (updated) ~ forex trading news

You can review the medium-term trading strategy released August 25,2014 . It was going to be 2/3 the way complete and accurate! I have closed the price trades at 1275.80 .

Right now Im waiting for the signal to buy gold.
Gold trading strategy medium-term :
Buy limit: 1265 - 1270 USD/oz
Stop loss: 1258 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1300 USD/oz

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New Autotrader for forex ~ forex trading news strategy

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Watukushay No 5 and JPY crosses First Encouraging Results ~ forex trading guide

When I coded Watukushay No.5 my idea was to build a universal breakout system that could be used to exploit a wide array of market inefficiencies in the foreign exchange market. After discovering 10 year profitable backtesting settings for 6 different currency pairs it seemed that this system was able to achieve this goal with similar profitability and good profit to draw down ratios on all of these different instruments. However it then became clear that the system was missing to conquer one formidable enemy which has eluded me since I first started my ventures in long term profitable trading : the JPY crosses. Within this article I will share with you some of my first profitable results on a JPY cross using Watukushay No.5.

The JPY crosses are definitely hard to trade and to exploit mechanically and the reasons why this is the case are many. Perhaps the most important reason is the general lack of liquidity of these instruments which causes wild swings and unpredictable behavior with some trading days having even 1000 pip rallies and some others having 1000 pip whipsaws. It becomes clear then that coming up with a trading technique using Watukushay No.5 to exploit their trading behavior would not be easy but since I always enjoy a good challenge I decided to give this a shot.

When I first started to try Watukushay No.5 on the EUR/JPY, it seemed that the EA would be unsuccessful in trading this pair. Settings that gave 10 year profitable results on other pairs were marginally profitable and an analysis of the backtests revealed promptly that the inefficiencies I was trying to exploit were very weak, if even existent at all. By analyzing the initial simulation results and trades I then realized that perhaps I needed to give this problem a fresh perspective, maybe the problem could be solved by changing focus. This is when I realized that eventhough short term or long term breakouts as those traded by the USD/CHF and NZD/USD respectively were not going to work on the EUR/JPY, it seemed that the strong whipsaws and changes in direction in the longer time frames could in fact be traded to achieve profitable results.

So the answer Watukushay No.5 gave to the EUR/JPY was quite clear, it is not trading in the direction but fading long term breakouts what might work for this currency pair. I then started to use long periods of breakout-box definition (hundreds of hours) and I started to test the limit function of the EA which reverts the pending order positions and their intent with breakouts towards the upside triggering short trades and breakouts towards the downside triggering long trades. The results started to look much better and an inefficiency that could be exploited with modest results started to arise from the dark.
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The above image shows you how this technique actually works for this pair. Long term period breakouts tend to signal reversals since - on this pair at least - strong moves towards one side seem to signal reversals while they rarely signal true trending periods. This shows us how different the behavior of this currency pair is when compared with the other pairs traded by Watukushay No.5, on other instruments the EA exploits breakouts that lead to trades that follow overall trend direction while on this currency pair an inefficiency which is almost opposite in nature appears to take place.

The ten year backtests shown below (Jan 2000 to Jan 2010) show us that the EA indeed manages to achieve long term profitable results for this currency pair. However the fact is that the average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down ratio is almost 1:3 (so there is still a lot of improvement needed before we can add this to our portfolio). The important thing here is that we were able to achieve our first 10 year profitable settings for this pair and now that we know the nature of the inefficiencies we can exploit it will become much easier to find more profitable results for this and other currency pairs.
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In the end it seems that Waukushay No.5 is indeed a very powerful and universal breakout trading system that can be used for the finding of breakout based inefficiencies on a wide array of different currency pairs. With the JPY crosses we will hopefully be able to add the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY to our current instrument portfolio for this EA. If you would like to learn more about Watukushay No.5 and its trading tactics and results in live and back testing please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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How To Get Umaki The Trader Builder ~ forex trading free

If you have been reading my blog recently you might be aware about the development of a trading tool I have built to use the metatrader 4 strategy tester as a "live" trading platform that would let us speed up the process of manual or discretionary system evaluation to a great extent. The tool allows us to use the visual backtesting feature of the strategy tester to trade on "live evolving charts" as we would trade the real market. You can read more about this tool and what it does here. On todays post I want to talk about the meaning of the word Umaki and how you can get this useful tool to increase the speed in which you learn to trade manually and understand the forex trading market.

What does Umaki mean ? Contrary to my general expert advisors which use words in Quechua or Nahuatl as their names (all experts of the Watukushay project use them) this trade-learning tool uses a word in Zulu, the language of a very well known group of Southern African tribes, to describe the EA. Umaki means "builder" in Zulu, I named it this way because I consider Umaki to be a "trader builder" a tool which can be used to get to successful manual trading much quicker - yet with a LOT of additional effort - in currency trading.

Why Zulu ? You might be asking. The reason for this is because of the way in which Umaki will be shared with all of you. Since Umaki does NOT have anything to do with automated trading but just with manual and discretionary trading I decided not to make it available within Asirikuy but to use it as a way to do something better.
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This is when I remembered the "Treasures of Africa" foundation one of my favorite charities dedicated to the protection and shelter of children in Tanzania. This foundation is run by a group of very dedicated and selfless Christians who attempt to do the impossible day after day to bring some hope into the heart of Africa. I have to say that the job they do is absolutely amazing and I have always greatly enjoyed to help them in as much as I can with what they need. I have to say that I also think the name of this charity is absolutely incredible, I can assure you that after you see their pictures youll understand that diamonds are not the true treasures of Africa.

When I programmed Umaki it seemed like the perfect opportunity to help them and to do something to make the world better, even if it is only a grain of sand. If you want to get the Umaki EA to further develop your manual trading abilities please donate some amount of money (any amount you want) to the "Treasures of Africa" foundation. It would be absolutely great if you not only donated some money but also committed to the sponsoring of one of their children. Sponsoring a child is an absolutely wonderful endeavor and I can assure you that it is a true way in which you can make a difference to change some of the bad things happening around the world.

If you have made your donation or have started sponsoring a child please send me an email to ekans_(at)hotmail.com with a copy of your payment receipt and Ill be glad to send you the link to download the Umaki mql4 code along with a small set of instructions on how to use the EA. The download link and instructions will be sent to you within 24 hours after I receive your email. I believe that for people who want to become serious discretionary traders Umaki will be a very good tool and for everyone who sponsors a child rewards will go far beyond those of trading. Also remember that the donations you make to this charity are entirely tax deductible (at least under US law).
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If you however would like to learn more about educating yourself to be successful in automated trading please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Starting a New Project The Free FXReviews Ebook ~ forex trading iraqi dinar

If you have been a regular visitor of my website during the past 8-10 months, you will know I have been updating my blog daily for most of this time. There were several reasons why I decided to do this, mainly because I wanted to increase my ability to write creative content and because I wanted to create a loyal based of readers who would always find new articles everyday. I think I have achieved both of these goals in the sense that it is now much easier for me to come up with new posts for the blog and my website is registering a very good 30-40% of returning visitors, some of which I think read my blog on a regular basis (thank you for stopping by ! :o)). Now I feel it is time to take this "daily writing" and all the generated content to the "next level", so to speak. On todays post I will talk to you about a new project I will be starting dealing with all this content that and a new, free ebook that will come out as a result :o).

I have noticed during the past 6 months that most of the articles I write are not read a lot and most of them end up as part of my archives, being accessed only sporadically once or twice every month. Most of the people who find my blog through google end up in articles dealing with backtesting, renko charts, tick charts, Watukushay experts, Ayotl and mainly, in articles dealing with Commercial EA reviews. I feel that this is a waste of content since I believe some of my best contributions are actually the articles that are less-found through search engines.

How to fix this issue ? Some of you have suggested that my navigation system is pretty bad and that I should change it to a more "category sorted", "user friendly" way of finding my different posts and articles. You are absolutely right in this sense but the truth is that I am bound by the limitations of the blogger platform which does not allow me to input posts categories and generate menus with as much freedom as I would like. Of course, changing websites might be a solution for this (changing to a more powerful platform like wordpress) but the fact is that I would lose search engine placement and important links which make this move probably not so good for the blog right now.

After reading some websites dealing with content organization and how to make old, unvisited, yet extremely relevant content surface, I decided that the most productive and so the best way to get my content out there would be to organize it in a free ebook. So what I will be doing right now is pretty simple, I will be taking many of my blog posts and I will edit them so that they can be "stitched together" in an ebook. This ebook will become available totally for free and it will become - hopefully - a vital piece of information for new traders who are looking into becoming long term profitable traders using automated trading systems. The ebook will deal with many issues I have discussed within posts like doing backtests, simulation reliability, backtesting pitfalls, scalping systems, martingale systems, surviving draw down periods, EA design, etc.

Does this make the current ebook irrelevant ? Of course not ! The current ebook contains a lot of content which has never been published on the blog and it is bound to stay as the guide it has always been for people new to automated trading. What I seek with the new free ebook is to organize the blogs content and make it easily accessible for people who will not easily get to all those archived articles. It will be more of a "blog summary" which I think will prove absolutely useful for many people out there. Right now I am aiming for a 30-50 page ebook but the final length will depend on how much content I take from the blog and how much space it takes after editing it to fit a more "ebook feel".

Certainly the current ebook will have some changes (sorry, I know it hasnt been updated for a while !) which I will discuss on tomorrows post. I will be working on a very important remake and content addition in July and other similar changes and I am definitely thinking about offering it only within Asirikuy as for me everything is kind of bundled now and I fear that people buying only the ebook are not getting "the whole picture". Again, I will explain all of this in much more detail on tomorrows post :o).

If you have any suggestions or opinion about this new free ebook project dealing with the blogs contents please leave a comment. Is there any post you would like to see on the ebook ? Do you think the idea is good/bad ? Which posts do you think would be very useful if you were a new trader ? Which posts did you find particularly interesting ? Please leave a comment :o).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to design your own trading systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Gold trading strategy release September 10 (updated) ~ forex trading course

Yesterday, the main trend is bearish for gold prices. However, in the zone of 1247 - 1249, gold prices met resistance from the trendline support. Trend line defined on D1 time frame, is drawn from the value of 684 USD/oz (October 2008) and 1,179 USD/oz (December 2013).

Gold trading strategy release September 10,2014. Price trends: fell before rising back.
Strategy:
Buy limit: 1252.50 - 1254.50 USD/oz
Stop loss: 1248.30 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1264.30 USD/oz

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Uneven Strategies Working with Different Profitabilities in Portfolio Building Part One ~ forex trading kaskus

One of the first questions I asked myself when I begun the development of portfolios within Asirikuy was : What if the profitabiliy of the trading systems used is very different ? What will happen if one system is much more profitable than the other one in the long term ? I started to wonder if the most unprofitable system would just drain out the profitability of the best one or if things would improve with time as the systems traded together. Today I will be writing the first part of a two part post which will talk about my finding around portfolio trading of uneven systems and the effect of doing these types of pair-ups in the overall draw down and profitability of a given portfolio.

In order to pair two uneven systems I needed to find two likely long term profitable systems that traded with similar frequency but which had significant differences in profitability that would become larger in the long term. The most suitable system I found was Watukushay No.2 which trades on both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. Although both instances are bound to be long term profitable, the EUR/USD instance achieves higher profitabilities in simulation due to the higher presence of the inefficiency exploited by Watukushay No.2 on this currency pair. By pairing up both systems I would be able to see the overall effect in long term portfolio trading allowing me to see if one system would be able to drain the other one or if - despite their differences in profitability - they would achieve a joint effort towards more profitable territory.

To make things even more interesting I decided to increase the Risk used on these tests to 5 also extending the backtests to include 2010 months up until May first. The results - shown below - let us see the big difference in profitability between the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instances of Watukushay No.2 as compounding effects become more pronounced. The contribution of the less profitable GBP/USD instance becomes less significant as time goes by and the EUR/USD instance starts to take a very important place within the portfolio. In the year 2009-2010, most of the position sizes taken are the responsability of the EUR/USD instance while the GBP/USD instance contributes about 5-10% of the trading volume. It is extremely interesting here to note that -in the long term - a portfolio setup eliminates unprofitable strategies by itself, since less account percentage is allocated as the instances fail to accurately perform, effectively protecting the account from the less perfoming strategies.
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However what happens during the whole ten year period ? What happens with the overall losing period length, maximum draw down, etc ? For the Risk 5 tests, the maximum draw down period length and the maximum draw down values for the EUR/USD instance were 658 days and 26.96% while for the GBP/USD instance they were 1026 and 59.41%. However, the portfolio achieves a wonderful effect and achieves - within the ten year period - to reduce the maximum draw down period to 433 days and the maximum draw down to 30.66% just a little bit higher than the EUR/USD instance and much lower than the GBP/USD instance.
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It is also very interesing to evaluate the yearly profits of the portfolio (shown above) which allow us to see how the EUR/USD instance takes over as times goes by. Of particular importance is the year 2002 in which Watukushay No.2 achieves its highest profit on the EUR/USD (note that high risks exaggerate these effects), leaving behind the GBP/USD instance in terms of equity gains. As time evolves even further we note how the EUR/USD instance keeps growing the account and the contribution of the GBP/USD instance becomes very small. In the end, the profitability of the GBP/USD instance achieves a minor increase in average yearly profitability for the account, from 41 to 42% showing that the addition of this instance, eventhough much less profitable did add up to draw down period reduction and increases in profitability in the long term.

Of course, there are still several questions unanswered which will be addressed on the next part, released tomorrow. For example, what happens if we decide to start to trade a portfolio like this just before the worst draw down period of the worst performing system ? Will this expose us to higher risk ? Is the long term risk indicative of the highest possible draw down even when different starting periods are taken into account ? Tomorrow I will try to answer these questions as I continue to research the depths of the world of portfolio trading and combinations of Asirikuy systems.

From todays post we can definitely conclude that the best idea is to combine trading systems with similar profit targets, however if one of the systems does start to fail it is very probable that its trading contribution will be slowly eliminated by the account growth caused by the other systems. This is very powerful in the sense that the portfolio self-manages the profitability of trading strategies and automatically rewards systems that perform better and punishes systems that perform worse.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can learn to develop your own long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Slow Moving Averages Crossover Strategy ~ forex trading experience

Use time frame and currency which respond the best (1 hour, 1 day… or any other).

Indicators: (multiple of 7) 7 SMA, 14 SMA, 21 SMA.

Entry rules: When 7 SMA goes through 14 and continues through 21, BUY/SELL in the direction of 7 SMA once price gets through 21 SMA.

Exit rules: exit when 7 SMA goes back and touches 21 SMA.

Advantages: again it is an easy set up and does not require any calculations or other studies. Can produce very good results during strong market moves, the system also can be easily programmed and traded automatically.

Disadvantages: System requires periodical monitoring according to a chosen time frame. SMA indicator signal can be confirmed after the current price bar has been fully formed and closed. In other words, when SMA stops changing and the signal is fixed, traders may rely on such information to open a trade.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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My Latest Currency Trader Magazine Article Exploiting an Asian Session Based Inefficiency ~ forex trading gains

Certainly some of you will remember my June Currency Trader Magazine article in which I did a study of the Asian session showing that this trading time frame has very predictable characteristics which become evident when normalized through the eyes of a volatility criteria such as the ATR. Near the end of that article I said that I was working on the development of a trading system to exploit this predictable behavior, something which is precisely the subject of my latest Currency Trader magazine article (which was released the day before yesterday). During this blog post I will talk a little bit about this article and why it is an important achievement for me in the area of automated trading system development.

For those of you who are not familiar with the magazine, Currency Trader is one of the most world-renowned online publications dealing with forex and futures trading. The magazine features publications from very knowledgeable people around the field of trading, showing you things from concrete system development (like my articles do) to a fundamental analysis of the market or certain currency pairs (like Barbara Rockefeller shows). As a plus this publication is also available online for free here.

My August article on this magazine deals precisely with the exploitation of the predictability of the Asian session on the EUR/USD. Certainly if the Asian session was able to exhibit almost constant trading behavior (when normalized by an ATR) through an extensive period of time (you can read my June article to learn more) it was obvious to me that some type of inefficiency would have to come out from this phenomena.

My first approach was to look for the obvious, which was the exploitation of an inefficiency based on the ranges or total price changes within my June article but after doing research on this for a few days it became obvious that such a system could never be developed and simulated in an accurate way, especially using a program with the limitations in backtesting that Metatrader 4 so clearly has. In the beginning of the article I clearly highlight the reasons why I chose definitely NOT to trade within the Asian session to get a profitable system.
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Then I realized that the only way to build a system that gave accurate simulations which I could use to exploit the Asian session was to use the Asian session but trade after it was finished. This allowed me to build a system with wide profit and loss targets that could be simulated accurately which I could use for the Currency Trader Magazine article. Of course, the specific nature of the inefficiency I found and its nature can be seen on my article which can be downloaded free of charge for two months (if you are reading this after September/2010) you might need to purchase it).

The system was clearly an important achievement with very good profit and draw down targets that have additional merit in the fact that they were obtained without any optimization whatsoever. The simple nature of this inefficiency (which is almost entirely price action based) and the obvious predictable character of the Asian session made the system achieve good results during a 10 year testing period, although the June article only analyzes the Asian session from 2006-2010 showing that the predictability of this session probably goes all the way back to at least the beginning of this decade. Of course, if you want to see the exact results of this trading system feel free to download and read the article (again, available for free).

I liked this system very much because it shows you that the market works in a very interconnected manner. The fact that a trading period has predictable characteristics may allow you to exploit a completely different market period which appears to be extremely efficient on its own. It definitely seems that the obvious ways of developing market predictability are already efficient since the information is known to all market participants but this predictability in itself seems to sprout inefficiencies on other times of the day which are not obvious to all traders within the market, giving us the clear opportunity to exploit a tradable inefficiency.

Again, I invite you to go to the Currency Trader Magazine website to download and read my August article (you might also want to read the article after mine, a very interesting system developed on tick volume analysis). It would be great if you could leave a comment with your opinion about this CT article :o)

If you would like to learn more about my work in automated trading and how you too can start to gain a true education to build and trade likely long term profitable systems please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Trend line Strategy ~ forex trading disclaimer

This is a good simple strategy. I have traded it myself on a demo account with great success. It involved looking at the daily charts and drawing trend lines. A trend line must connect to at least two points. It is important that the trend line doesn’t have any breaks between the two points it connects to. Here is an example:

As trend lines are often used as support and resistance points, the market often bounces and sometimes even reverses at them. The way we can use this to our advantage is by placing buy or sell orders at the trend lines. We can place a stop just below the trend line, but ensure you leave enough room for volatility. If the trend line holds you can either set a TP at a support or resistance point or use a trailing stop. I like trailing stops personally. If the trend line breaks you take a small loss, but if it holds as they so often do you have a good chance of a winning trade that greatly exceeds the risk you took. You can see how this happened on the 3rd point of the trendline in the chart above. If you had placed a buy order at this point, it would have been a very nice, low risk trade.

Source: forexpm.com

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